SevillaDraw 30%Real Madrid
🏆
Prediction
Real Madrid @ 1.75
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.57
52% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.55
60% probability
BTTS Yes @ 1.55
Both
teams have a strong BTTS trend—Sevilla at 55% and Real Madrid at 70% in recent matches. Real Madrid's offensive prowess led by Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior makes them likely to
score, while Sevilla's recent improvement at home suggests they'll find the net too.
💡 Despite Real Madrid's superior form, Sevilla's recent home performances have shown a significant uptick, making this a potentially tighter contest than expected.
Final Result
Sevilla 0 : 1 Real Madrid
Our prediction: 2 ✓
Hey there, football fan! Sevilla is ready to host Real Madrid at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. With the season winding down, every point counts, especially for Sevilla who are looking to finish strong at home. Real Madrid, sitting comfortably in second, are still pushing to keep their momentum going. This match promises excitement and maybe a bit of drama!
Avg Scored0.95
Avg Conceded1.65
Over 2.545%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets2
Avg Scored1.85
Avg Conceded1.2
Over 2.565%
BTTS70%
Clean Sheets4
🏟️Venue
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla
48,649 capacity · Grass
⭐ Sevilla — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| D. Lukebakio | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 7.30 | 2 | 9 |
| Rafa Mir | Attacker | 3 | 0 | 7.06 | 5 | 0 |
| Kike Salas | Defender | 1 | 0 | 6.97 | 23 | 6 |
| Andrés Castrín | Defender | 1 | 0 | 6.96 | 17 | 2 |
| Adrià Pedrosa | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.90 | 1 | 1 |
⭐ Real Madrid — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | Attacker | 24 | 4 | 7.60 | 28 | 63 |
| Vinícius Júnior | Attacker | 15 | 5 | 7.52 | 34 | 66 |
| D. Huijsen | Defender | 2 | 2 | 7.35 | 26 | 10 |
| F. Valverde | Midfielder | 5 | 8 | 7.35 | 32 | 43 |
| Éder Militão | Defender | 2 | 1 | 7.30 | 16 | 8 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X2
Double Chance X21.22
Double Chance 121.2
Over 1.5 Goals1.18
Under 1.5 Goals4.75
Historical Data
Historically, it's been a tough ride for Sevilla against Real Madrid, who have won 8 out of their last 10 encounters, with an average of 3.2 goals per game. Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 60% of these meetings, and both teams have scored in 70% of them. Real Madrid's dominance is clear, but Sevilla managed to draw twice, showing they can compete when on form.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model gives Real Madrid a 44% chance of winning, with Sevilla at 26% and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, reflecting the model's expectation of a close match. The confidence score is high at 88%, based on data strength and consistency. With odds of 1.75 for a Real Madrid win, the value bet might be in the BTTS market, especially given both teams' recent scoring trends.
Statistical Deep Dive
Sevilla's recent form has been on the rise, winning 3 of their last 5 games and improving their points per game to 1.8. They average 1.2 goals at home while conceding 1.6. Real Madrid, on the other hand, have scored 1.85 goals per game across the last 20 matches, with a strong away record of 10 wins in 18 games. The expected goals (xG), which measures the quality of chances, is quite balanced with Sevilla at 1.07 and Real Madrid at 1.09. Both teams have a tendency for BTTS, with 60% in their recent head-to-heads.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
The expected goals total is 2.16, with a 52% probability for over 2.5 goals. Given the historical average of 3.2 goals per H2H, the
odds of 1.57 suggest a reasonable chance. However, it's not a strong recommendation.
2
Yes, with BTTS occurring in 55% of Sevilla's and 70% of Real Madrid's recent matches, the
odds of 1.55 for BTTS Yes seem favorable. Sevilla's recent home form suggests they might break Real Madrid's defense, despite their solid clean sheet rate.
3
What does the head-to-head record say about Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have dominated with 8
wins out of 10, while Sevilla have only managed 2 draws. The average goals per meeting is 3.2, with 60% of matches going over 2.5 goals. Real Madrid's recent form suggests they are likely to continue this trend.
4
What is the Draw No
Bet option for Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
The Draw No
Bet odds are more secure for Real Madrid at 1.30, as it covers the draw scenario with a refund. Given Sevilla's lower
win probability, this option offers better value than a straight
win bet.
5
Are there injury concerns for Sevilla vs Real Madrid?
Both
teams appear to have a clean bill of health with no significant injuries reported. This means we can expect a strong lineup from both sides, ensuring a competitive match.
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La Liga17.05.2026
