Atletico MadridDraw 24%Girona
🏆
Prediction
Atletico Madrid @ 1.51
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.55
59% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.62
58% probability
BTTS Yes @ 1.62
With Atletico Madrid's tendency to both
score and concede at home (65% BTTS in recent matches) and Girona's similar stats (60% BTTS), both
teams finding the net is a likely scenario.
💡 Don't overlook Atletico's strong home scoring rate of 2.27 goals per
game, which puts pressure on Girona's defense early.
Final Result
Atletico Madrid 1 : 0 Girona
Our prediction: 1 โ
Welcome to this exciting clash between Atletico Madrid and Girona in La Liga, taking place on 17th May 2026. Atletico are eyeing a Champions League spot, while Girona are fighting to avoid the drop. With both teams needing points for very different reasons, this promises to be a fiercely contested match. Atletico's home record is strong, but Girona's knack for grinding out draws away could make this a nail-biter.
Avg Scored1.85
Avg Conceded1.6
Over 2.565%
BTTS65%
Clean Sheets4
Avg Scored1.2
Avg Conceded1.15
Over 2.545%
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets4
โญ Atletico Madrid โ Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Koke | Midfielder | 2 | 2 | 7.17 | 31 | 30 |
| Pablo Barrios | Midfielder | 1 | 1 | 7.03 | 23 | 20 |
| J. Oblak | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.99 | 29 | 0 |
| รlex Baena | Midfielder | 2 | 3 | 6.98 | 25 | 42 |
| Marcos Llorente | Defender | 0 | 4 | 6.97 | 27 | 19 |
โญ Girona โ Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| V. Krapyvtsov | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.20 | 2 | 0 |
| P. Gazzaniga | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.07 | 31 | 0 |
| Fran Beltrรกn | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 6.97 | 13 | 9 |
| D. Blind | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.95 | 31 | 11 |
| V. Tsygankov | Attacker | 6 | 4 | 6.89 | 28 | 43 |
๐ Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.14
Double Chance X22.45
Double Chance 121.17
Over 1.5 Goals1.18
Under 1.5 Goals4.75
Historical Data
In their last 10 meetings, Atletico Madrid has come out on top 7 times, with Girona winning just once. The average goals per game in these encounters is 3.5, with 70% ending with Over 2.5 goals. Both Teams to Score has occurred in 50% of these games. Atletico's dominance and high-scoring nature in these fixtures suggest they might have the upper hand again.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model gives Atletico Madrid a 59% chance of winning, with a draw at 24% and Girona at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, but with Atletico's strong home form and Girona's struggles, a home win seems probable. The model's confidence is high at 88%, factoring in data points, strength, and consistency. With odds of 1.51 for an Atletico win, they are the favorites. However, the best value bet is BTTS at 1.62 given both teams' scoring trends.
Statistical Deep Dive
Atletico Madrid averages 1.85 goals per game, with a solid home form scoring 2.27 on average, and they concede 1.55 per match at home. Girona, meanwhile, scores 1.2 goals per game and concedes slightly more at 1.15. Both teams have seen Over 2.5 goals in 65% and 45% of their matches, respectively. The xG model predicts 1.91 for Atletico and 1.06 for Girona, totaling 2.97, suggesting a likely outcome of over 2.5 goals. Atleticoโs form is stable, with a recent points per game average of 1.4, while Girona's form is declining.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Yes, with Atletico averaging 2.27 goals at home and Girona's tendency to concede, the
odds of 1.55 for Over 2.5 goals look promising. Historical data also supports this with 70% of their last meetings exceeding 2.5 goals.
2
Will both
teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Yes, with a 65% BTTS rate in Atletico's recent
games and 60% for Girona, both
teams are likely to find the net. The
odds for BTTS Yes are at 1.62.
3
What does the head-to-head record say about Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Atletico Madrid has dominated with 7
wins out of the last 10 meetings. The average goals per
game is 3.5, with Over 2.5 goals occurring 70% of the time, indicating a high-scoring trend.
4
What is the Draw No
Bet option for Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Draw No
Bet means your stake is returned if the match ends in a draw. The
odds for Atletico Madrid are 1.18 and for Girona 4.33. This offers a safer alternative to the straight
win bet.
5
Are there injury concerns for Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
There are no significant injury concerns for either
team, meaning both squads should be at full strength, which supports a competitive match.
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La Liga17.05.2026
