AlmeriaDraw 14%Valladolid
🏆
Prediction
Almeria @ 1.41
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.57
68% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.7
58% probability
Over 1.5 @ 1.18
Almeria has been scoring an average of 2 goals per
game, and their recent home form shows a tendency for high-scoring matches. With a 75% rate of over 2.5 goals in their last 20
games, expecting at least two goals seems a safe
bet.
💡 While Almeria scores heavily at home (2.8 goals per
game), they've only kept two clean sheets in their last 20 matches, suggesting goals at both ends.
Final Result
Almeria 1 : 0 Valladolid
Our prediction: 1 ✓
As Almeria hosts Valladolid in the Segunda División showdown, all eyes will be on Almeria's push for promotion. With the game taking place in a crucial round, both teams have their stakes high. Almeria is eyeing to secure their spot in the promotion playoffs, while Valladolid is fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone. This match promises to be a thrilling encounter as both squads have everything to play for.
Avg Scored2
Avg Conceded1.65
Over 2.575%
BTTS75%
Clean Sheets2
Avg Scored1.15
Avg Conceded1.65
Over 2.555%
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets6
⭐ Almeria — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Sergio Arribas | Midfielder | 24 | 7 | 7.41 | 41 | 86 |
| Andrés Fernández | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.15 | 40 | 0 |
| Adri Embarba | Midfielder | 15 | 9 | 7.03 | 39 | 62 |
| D. Lopy | Midfielder | 3 | 2 | 6.97 | 26 | 19 |
| Miguel de la Fuente | Attacker | 5 | 4 | 6.95 | 20 | 25 |
⭐ Valladolid — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Álvaro Aceves | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.03 | 11 | 0 |
| Iván Alejo | Defender | 0 | 1 | 7.00 | 35 | 49 |
| Chuky San José | Midfielder | 7 | 7 | 6.96 | 34 | 46 |
| A. Ndiaye | Midfielder | 4 | 0 | 6.91 | 18 | 14 |
| S. Jurić | Midfielder | 1 | 1 | 6.90 | 35 | 25 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.1
Double Chance X22.8
Double Chance 121.14
Over 1.5 Goals1.18
Under 1.5 Goals4.75
Historical Data
In their last 10 meetings, Valladolid has had the upper hand with 5 wins compared to Almeria's single victory, alongside 4 draws. The average goals per match in these encounters stand at 2.2, with 50% of the games seeing over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in 50% of the matches. This head-to-head history suggests a competitive clash, but Almeria's recent attacking form might tilt the scales in their favor.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model heavily favors Almeria, giving them a 73% chance to win this match. The expected goals total is 5.47, hinting at a high-scoring affair. This prediction is backed by an 88% confidence score, derived from strong data agreement and consistency in Almeria's attacking stats. With odds of 1.41 for an Almeria win and 1.57 for over 2.5 goals, the model suggests these outcomes are likely. Given Almeria's recent form and their scoring prowess at home, betting on a high-scoring game seems prudent.
Statistical Deep Dive
Almeria's attacking prowess is evident, netting an average of 2 goals per game and boasting a 75% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals. Their xG (expected goals) for this match is a whopping 4.4, indicating a strong likelihood of finding the net multiple times. Meanwhile, Valladolid has struggled defensively, conceding 2.3 goals on average in away matches. Although Valladolid's form has been stable, their away record shows they are susceptible to conceding goals, with a BTTS (both teams to score) percentage of 40%. Almeria's home form has been impressive, winning 14 of their 20 matches, and they'll look to capitalize on Valladolid's defensive vulnerabilities.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Almeria vs Valladolid?
With Almeria's xG at 4.4 and a season rate of 75% matches with over 2.5 goals, plus the 68% likelihood from the model, over 2.5 goals seems likely.
Odds are 1.57.
2
Almeria's
games have seen both
teams score in 75% of their last 20 matches. However, Valladolid's BTTS rate is only 40%.
Odds for BTTS Yes are 1.7. Almeria has struggled to keep clean sheets, making BTTS a possibility.
3
What does the head-to-head record say about Almeria vs Valladolid?
Valladolid leads with 5
wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss in the last 10 meetings. The matches average 2.2 goals, with 50% over 2.5 goals. Valladolid has had a slight edge historically.
4
What is the Draw No
Bet option for Almeria vs Valladolid?
Draw No
Bet means your stake is returned if the
game ends in a draw. Almeria's DNB
odds are lower due to their strong home form, offering better value than a straight
win.
5
Are there injury concerns for Almeria vs Valladolid?
Both
teams appear to have full squads with no significant injuries reported, allowing them to field their strongest line-ups.
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Segunda División31.05.2026
