AD Ceuta FCDraw 33%Albacete
🏆
Prediction
Albacete @ 2.75
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
NO @ 1.81
38% probability
🔁
NO @ 1.61
41% probability
Albacete's recent form suggests a
team on the rise, having won four out of their last five matches. With an improving defense conceding just 1.05 goals per
game, they appear well-equipped to handle Ceuta's inconsistent attack. The model favors Albacete with a 44%
win probability, aligning with their upward trajectory.
💡 Despite Ceuta's home advantage, their tendency to concede early goals (39 in 20 matches) could be their undoing against an Albacete side adept at striking in the first half.
Final Result
AD Ceuta FC 1 : 0 Albacete
Our prediction: 2 ✗
The Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta will be the stage for a clash that may define the season's closing chapters for both teams. AD Ceuta FC, nestled in mid-table obscurity, face an Albacete side teetering on the brink of a late push for higher honors. The artificial turf underfoot could play into Albacete's hands, whose recent form has been nothing short of relentless. For Ceuta, it's a chance to stabilize a wavering campaign, their home ground a familiar fortress where resilience has often been their ally.
Avg Scored1.2
Avg Conceded1.95
Over 2.570%
BTTS65%
Clean Sheets3
Avg Scored1.4
Avg Conceded1.05
Over 2.550%
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets6
🏟️Venue
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
6,500 capacity · Artificial turf
⭐ AD Ceuta FC — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Guille Vallejo | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.11 | 32 | 0 |
| Pedro López | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.10 | 8 | 0 |
| Marino Illescas | Midfielder | 0 | 2 | 6.92 | 17 | 23 |
| Kuki | Midfielder | 6 | 4 | 6.88 | 36 | 27 |
| Y. Didi | Midfielder | 2 | 2 | 6.84 | 36 | 16 |
⭐ Albacete — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Raúl Lizoain | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.38 | 22 | 0 |
| Jon Morcillo | Midfielder | 5 | 3 | 7.16 | 21 | 29 |
| Diego Mariño | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.98 | 18 | 1 |
| Agus Medina | Midfielder | 7 | 1 | 6.94 | 25 | 45 |
| Fran Gámez | Defender | 0 | 5 | 6.90 | 35 | 54 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.37
Double Chance X21.5
Double Chance 121.27
Over 1.5 Goals1.25
Under 1.5 Goals3.5
Final Verdict
As the two teams prepare to face off, the odds paint a picture of a closely contested match, with Albacete slightly favored at odds of 2.75. Their upward trajectory in form, combined with a stable defensive record, gives them a slight edge over a Ceuta side struggling to find consistency. With Albacete's tactical discipline and key players like Morcillo and Medina in form, they are well-positioned to capitalize on Ceuta's defensive lapses. The model's prediction of a 0-1 scoreline reflects Albacete’s ability to edge out narrow victories, particularly on the road.
Manager Battle
In the tactical arena, AD Ceuta FC’s 4-3-3 formation underlines a philosophy of fluid attacking play, though often hampered by defensive frailties. Their midfield, orchestrated by the industrious Kuki, seeks to dominate possession and create incisive opportunities. Yet, their vulnerability lies in a defense that struggles with pacey counter-attacks. Albacete, on the other hand, employ a pragmatic 4-4-2, emphasizing solidity and swift transitions. Their ability to compress space and break with purpose has seen them outmaneuver opponents, particularly away from home. The clash will hinge on whether Ceuta can breach Albacete’s disciplined lines and whether Albacete can exploit the gaps left by Ceuta’s adventurous forays.
Squad Quality & Depth
AD Ceuta FC's standout performers include Kuki, who has contributed six goals and four assists, and the reliable Marino Illescas, whose creativity in midfield offers a crucial outlet. However, their squad depth lacks the robust options needed to endure prolonged injuries or suspensions. Albacete's Jon Morcillo has been a pivotal figure, with five goals and three assists, supported by the dynamic Agus Medina, whose seven goals highlight his attacking prowess. The absence of significant injuries leaves Albacete with a well-rounded squad ready to exploit Ceuta's defensive inconsistencies. The disparity in player ratings further tilts the scales in Albacete's favor, with goalkeeper Raúl Lizoain providing a solid last line of defense.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
What are the
odds for AD Ceuta FC vs Albacete?
AD Ceuta FC:
odds of 2.38 (42.02% implied probability), Draw:
odds of 3.3 (30.30%), Albacete:
odds of 2.75 (36.36%). Albacete's
odds represent value given the model's 44%
win probability.
2
What is the correct
score prediction for AD Ceuta FC vs Albacete?
The model's most likely
score is 0-1. This aligns with the prediction of an Albacete
win, supported by their 1.19 xG compared to Ceuta's 0.81.
3
What is the best
bet for AD Ceuta FC vs Albacete?
The best value
bet is Albacete
Win at
odds of 2.75. The model probability of 44% suggests an edge over the implied
odds probability of 36.36%.
4
What is Albacete's away form this season?
Albacete's last five away results: W, W, W, L, D. They have scored 1.22 goals per away match while conceding 0.78, indicating strong defensive performances on the road.
5
Is the Double Chance
bet worth it for AD Ceuta FC vs Albacete?
Double Chance
odds: 1X at 1.37, X2 at 1.5, 12 at 1.27. The X2 option offers a combined probability of 81%, compared to the implied
odds probability of 66.67%, making it a worthwhile consideration.
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Segunda División30.05.2026
