As the World Cup rolls into Foxborough, Massachusetts, Haiti will be looking to capitalise on their formidable home form against Scotland. With a striking record of 11 wins in their last 20 matches, Haiti’s attack has been relentless, averaging 2.5 goals per game. Scotland, meanwhile, arrive on the back of a mixed bag of results,
Haiti vs Scotland | World Cup | 14/06/2026
04.06.2026
05:42
World Cup14/06/2026
Haiti
50%
VS
Scotland
21%
★ BEST BET
Haiti Win
Haiti's home form is compelling, with six wins from their last eleven home matches, averaging 2.09 goals scored, which is a significant edge over Scotland's away record. The model gives Haiti a 50% chance of winning, providing a value edge over the implied probability. Haiti's attacking efficiency at home should outstrip Scotland's declining away form, making this a solid bet.
💡 Haiti's home games have seen over 2.5 goals in 65% of matches, highlighting their attacking prowess and potential for high-scoring encounters, which could catch Scotland off guard.
Final Result
Haiti 0 : 1 Scotland
Our prediction: 1 โ
As the World Cup rolls into Foxborough, Massachusetts, Haiti will be looking to capitalise on their formidable home form against Scotland. With a striking record of 11 wins in their last 20 matches, Haiti's attack has been relentless, averaging 2.5 goals per game. Scotland, meanwhile, arrive on the back of a mixed bag of results, with their away form showing vulnerabilities. This clash is not just about points; it's a test of firepower versus resilience, and Haiti's attacking stats suggest they might have the upper hand.
Team Statistics
Venue
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
68,756 capacity ยท Artificial turf
Head-to-Head: Statistical Deep Dive
With no previous meetings between Haiti and Scotland, this World Cup encounter sets the stage for a fresh rivalry. The lack of historical data means both teams enter the match without any psychological baggage, allowing current form to take centre stage. Haiti's recent performance, particularly at home, suggests they will be a formidable opponent, while Scotland's away form shows room for improvement. As such, the focus will be on how each team adapts to the other's style, with Haiti's attacking threat likely to be a key factor in determining the outcome.
Model Output & Final Recommendation
The Poisson model gives Haiti a 50% chance of winning, with a draw at 29% and Scotland at 21%. Haiti's xG of 1.5 against Scotland's 0.9 suggests a narrow victory for the home side. The confidence score of 88% reflects the alignment of model predictions with Haiti's formidable home form. Our recommended bet is a Haiti win at odds of 2.00, with a value edge of 10% over the implied probability. If looking for alternatives, the over 1.5 goals market, with a 69% probability, provides a viable option. However, the main risk lies in Scotland's potential to disrupt with their sporadic away performances, which could challenge Haiti's defence.
Goal Markets: Value Assessment
The probability for over 2.5 goals in this match stands at 56%, priced at odds of 1.78. Haiti's penchant for high-scoring games at home, with a 65% rate of over 2.5 goals, adds weight to this market. However, the BTTS market appears less certain, with a 44% probability and odds of 2.20, as Haiti's strong defensive record could stifle Scotland's attack. The over 1.5 goals market, with a 69% probability and odds of 1.50, presents a safer option, considering both teams' scoring trends. Ranking the markets, over 1.5 goals offers the clearest edge, followed by over 2.5 goals.
Statistical Report: Every Number That Matters
Haiti's attacking efficiency at home is impressive, averaging 2.09 goals per game and boasting a 65% rate of matches seeing over 2.5 goals. Their ability to keep clean sheets, with ten from their last twenty matches, underscores a solid defensive setup, particularly at home where they concede just one goal per game on average. Scotland, on the other hand, have been inconsistent on their travels, scoring an average of 1.63 goals per game but also conceding an average of one goal, indicating potential defensive frailties. The BTTS market sees Haiti at 35%, contrasting with Scotland's 50%, suggesting Scotland's matches are more open. The confidence model highlights Haiti's home advantage and attacking form as key factors, with a confidence score of 88%, supported by a model probability of 50% for a home win. The expectation of a 1-0 scoreline further suggests a tight match, with Haiti's home form likely to be the decisive factor.
Frequently Asked Questions
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What does the head-to-head record say about Haiti vs Scotland?
With no head-to-head history, both teams enter this match on equal footing. The focus will be on current form, with Haiti's home advantage potentially pivotal.
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Are there injury concerns for Haiti vs Scotland?
Both squads appear fit with no significant injuries reported. This means both teams can field their strongest line-ups, potentially impacting the match's dynamics with full strength available.
